All Guides
Every guide, filtered by topic and type.
76 guides
- October 30, 2026
Category Guide
Best Prediction Market Apps Compared
Compare Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, PredictIt and peers by mechanics, market coverage, fees and who each app suits best.
- October 29, 2026
Market Explainer
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Fees, Settlement and Liquidity Compared
Compare Kalshi and Polymarket on structure, fee models, settlement mechanics and where liquidity comes from—so you can pick the platform that matches your needs.
- October 26, 2026
Market Explainer
Prediction Market Biases: Common Limits in Economic Markets
Practical guide to common prediction market biases—thin liquidity, herding, information asymmetry—and simple checks users and researchers use to judge price reliability.
- October 26, 2026
Beginner Guide
How Prediction Market Settlement Works
How prediction market settlement works: how event outcomes are determined, what ‘settlement’ means, and a simple worked example showing payoffs.
- October 26, 2026
Beginner Guide
What Is Liquidity in Prediction Markets
Liquidity describes how much volume and available orders exist at given prices in a prediction market. It affects price stability, slippage, and how much your trade moves the market.
- October 26, 2026
Beginner Guide
What Political Market Probabilities Mean
Learn how market prices translate into probability forecasts, what a percentage does and doesn’t mean, and how to use probabilities to compare political scenarios.
- October 26, 2026
Beginner Guide
What Happens When a Prediction Market Settles
When a prediction market settles, event contracts are converted to payouts (typically $1 or $0) based on the final outcome. This guide explains how settlement works and common issues.
- October 25, 2026
Market Explainer
Politics Prediction Market Drop-Outs Explained
When a candidate drops out, markets follow the contract's resolution rules. Learn typical outcomes, a buy-to-resolution example, what to check before trading, and common mistakes.
- October 25, 2026
Beginner Guide
What Do Prices in Sports Prediction Markets Mean?
Learn how prices in sports prediction markets map to implied probabilities, what a market price actually represents, common interpretation mistakes, and how to compare odds across platforms.
- October 24, 2026
Beginner Guide
Use prediction markets as a forecasting tool
Learn how to interpret prediction market prices as crowdsourced probabilities, combine them with models, and adjust for biases like thin markets or ambiguous contracts.
- October 22, 2026
Beginner Guide
Event Markets for Beginners: Reading Contracts, Prices and Settlement
Learn how to read common event contract types (Yes/No, multi-outcome, range, index), interpret prices as probabilities or expected values, and check settlement rules before you trade.
- October 20, 2026
Beginner Guide
Getting started with prediction markets: a practical checklist
A compact, practical checklist for new participants: account setup, how to read contracts and prices, simple order types, settlement expectations, and record-keeping.
- October 19, 2026
Beginner Guide
How Live Events Move Prices in Live Sports Markets
Live (in-play) sports markets react to events and information. This guide explains typical price moves, the role of speed and liquidity, and how to tell signal from noise.
- October 18, 2026
Beginner Guide
Favorite-Longshot Bias in Prediction Markets
The favorite–longshot bias is a consistent pattern where low-probability outcomes (longshots) are overvalued and high-probability outcomes (favorites) are undervalued in markets.
- October 18, 2026
Beginner Guide
Prediction Market Ambiguous Outcome: Handling Ties
When a market outcome is tied or unclear, platforms follow written resolution rules, use resolvers or oracles, or cancel and refund. Learn how to read those rules before trading.
- October 18, 2026
Beginner Guide
Compare Prediction Market Prices
Practical steps to compare prediction market prices across apps, account for fees and liquidity, and interpret implied probabilities with a worked numeric example.
- October 17, 2026
Market Explainer
Understanding liquidity in prediction markets: the metrics that matter
A practical guide to the liquidity metrics that shape prices in prediction markets and how AMMs and human orderbooks behave differently.
- October 15, 2026
Beginner Guide
Start prediction markets account: accounts, funds and platform basics
Step-by-step guide to opening a prediction market account, funding it with fiat or crypto, understanding settlement balances, fees, and basic safety checks before you trade.
- October 13, 2026
Beginner Guide
What happens when you place an order: the lifecycle of a prediction market trade
A practical guide to what happens after you submit a market or limit order on a prediction market: matching, price impact, confirmations, fees, settlement and common failures.
- October 12, 2026
Beginner Guide
Prediction Market Bid Ask Spread
The bid-ask spread is the gap between the highest price someone will buy a contract and the lowest price someone will sell. It measures liquidity and trading cost.
- October 12, 2026
Category Guide
Weather Prediction Markets
A practical guide to weather prediction markets: what they are, how prices reflect probabilities, how they resolve, and common beginner mistakes.
- October 11, 2026
Beginner Guide
What Entertainment Price Movements Signal
Learn how slow trends, sudden jumps, and volatility spikes in entertainment prediction markets reflect sentiment, news, and market structure — and how to read them responsibly.
- October 11, 2026
Beginner Guide
Inflation Expectations Markets: A Beginner's Guide
Prediction markets encode beliefs about future inflation into prices. Read how contracts, prices, and simple calculations reveal implied probabilities and expected inflation.
- October 11, 2026
Market Explainer
Crypto Event Contracts
Crypto event contracts are blockchain-based bets on discrete outcomes — like whether an asset hits a price or a protocol upgrade passes. Learn how they settle and common pitfalls.
- October 11, 2026
Beginner Guide
Prediction Market Calibration
An accessible guide to what calibration means for prediction markets, how researchers measure it, when market prices are well-calibrated, and common pitfalls.
- October 10, 2026
Beginner Guide
What Liquidity Means in Prediction Markets
Liquidity in prediction markets describes how easily you can buy or sell contracts without large price moves. Learn how to spot liquidity, what poor liquidity feels like, and simple ways to reduce risk.
- October 8, 2026
Market Explainer
Outcome Markets Explained: Single‑ vs Multi‑Outcome
Learn how single‑outcome and multi‑outcome prediction market contracts differ, how to read labels, probabilities and payout tables, and how to compare prices across formats.
- October 6, 2026
Category Guide
A categorized list of active prediction market platforms
Short profiles of 12 leading prediction market platforms, grouped by use case, with custody, contract types, and typical fees to help you pick the right one.
- October 4, 2026
Beginner Guide
What Is Market Depth in Prediction Markets?
Market depth shows the quantity available at each price on a prediction market. It determines how much your trade moves the price and how costly large trades are.
- October 4, 2026
Beginner Guide
What Are Conditional Prediction Markets?
Conditional prediction markets ask for the probability of an outcome given a stated condition. They let you express and read P(B|A) directly.
- October 4, 2026
Market Explainer
Sports Prediction Market Contracts
A sports prediction market contract is a simple bet-like instrument that pays a fixed amount if a sports outcome happens. Learn common types, resolution, and a worked example.
- October 3, 2026
Beginner Guide
What “weather price” means in weather prediction markets
Learn what a weather price encodes — probability for Yes/No contracts, expected value for scalar contracts, or index units — and what to check before you read a quote.
- October 1, 2026
Beginner Guide
Prediction Market Lifecycle: From Creation to Settlement
Follow one yes/no market from question wording and price formation to oracle resolution and final payout. Worked numbers show what a buyer experiences.
- September 27, 2026
Beginner Guide
Multi-Outcome Prediction Markets Explained
Multi-outcome prediction markets let you buy contracts for one of several possible results. Learn how prices add to 100%, see a 4-outcome example, and avoid common mistakes.
- September 27, 2026
Beginner Guide
What Is a Prediction Market Order Book?
An order book shows standing buy and sell orders for a prediction market. Learn how bids, asks, spread and depth signal price and liquidity for Yes/No contracts.
- September 27, 2026
Market Explainer
How Election Prediction Markets Work
Election prediction markets let people buy event contracts tied to election outcomes. This guide explains what prices mean, how markets run, and common pitfalls.
- September 22, 2026
Beginner Guide
How to Start a Prediction Market: Practical Checklist
Clear steps for organizers who want to start a prediction market: define the event, pick platform mechanics, write resolution rules, launch and manage liquidity.
- September 21, 2026
Category Guide
Crypto Prediction Markets
A clear guide to crypto prediction markets: what they are, how on‑chain markets set prices, and the main technical and economic risks that matter to beginners.
- September 20, 2026
Beginner Guide
What Is Volume in Prediction Markets?
Volume in prediction markets is the total trading activity over a period — usually the number or dollar value of contracts traded. Learn what it shows and what it doesn't.
- September 20, 2026
Category Guide
Economics Prediction Markets
Prediction markets let people buy contracts that pay out if an economic event occurs. Prices show the crowd's implied probability and help reveal expectations about economic outcomes.
- September 19, 2026
Beginner Guide
How to Read Prediction Market Probabilities
Learn how price numbers on prediction markets translate into implied chances, how to convert formats, read conflicting markets, and a quick checklist to judge trust.
- September 17, 2026
Beginner Guide
How Do Event Contracts Work: Encoding Outcomes
Learn how event contracts define what counts as an outcome, how they choose a data source or arbiter, and a checklist to read terms before you rely on the price.
- September 15, 2026
Market Explainer
Predictive Contract Outcomes: Binary, Scalar and Categorical
Clear rules for how contracts settle are the heart of prediction markets. This guide explains binary (Yes/No), scalar (numeric) and categorical (multi-option) outcomes and how to read prices.
- September 14, 2026
Category Guide
Politics Prediction Markets
A clear guide to how politics prediction markets work, what their prices mean, and common pitfalls for first-time users.
- September 13, 2026
Market Explainer
How Bitcoin Prediction Markets Work
An accessible guide to bitcoin prediction markets: what contracts mean, how prices map to implied probability, how settlement works, and common beginner mistakes.
- September 13, 2026
Beginner Guide
How to Trade Prediction Markets
Learn the basic steps to buy and interpret prediction market contracts, read prices as probabilities, and avoid common beginner mistakes.
- September 12, 2026
Beginner Guide
How Novig Works: Market Mechanics, Pricing, and Settlement
Learn how Novig runs Yes/No, multi‑outcome and prop markets, how its order‑book pricing compares with AMM pools, how contracts resolve, and practical user considerations.
- September 10, 2026
Market Explainer
Prediction contract outcomes: yes/no, categorical and scalar
Learn how Yes/No, categorical and scalar contracts settle, how resolution rules and ties are handled, and what contract prices mean before and after settlement.
- September 8, 2026
Beginner Guide
Prediction Markets for Beginners: A Quick, Practical Primer
Learn the essentials of reading and buying a Yes contract, what to check on any market, and how prices reflect information — with a single worked example.
- September 6, 2026
Beginner Guide
How to Read Prediction Market Prices
Learn what a prediction market price represents, how to read it as an implied probability, and what practical things (like spreads and liquidity) change how you should use that number.
- September 6, 2026
Beginner Guide
What Is Implied Probability?
Implied probability converts a prediction market price into a percentage chance. Learn what it represents, how to calculate it, and a simple buy-to-resolution example.
- September 6, 2026
Category Guide
Sports Prediction Markets Explained
A clear, practical guide to sports prediction markets: what they are, how prices reflect chances, and a simple buy-to-resolution example for beginners.
- September 6, 2026
Market Explainer
How Sports Prediction Markets Work
Sports prediction markets let people buy contracts that pay $1 if a game outcome happens. Prices show the market's implied probability and change as information arrives.
- September 5, 2026
Beginner Guide
Prediction Market Tutorial: Tour a Market Page
Learn how to read a market page: where to find outcomes and prices, how to check resolution rules and oracles, how to read charts and trade history, and a short safety checklist.
- September 3, 2026
Beginner Guide
Can You Lose Money in Prediction Markets?
Yes — you can lose money in prediction markets, but how much and why depends on the contract type, whether you buy or sell, fees, and platform risk.
- September 2, 2026
Category Guide
Entertainment Prediction Markets
A clear guide to how entertainment prediction markets work: what the prices mean, a simple buy-to-resolution example, common beginner mistakes, and related concepts.
- August 31, 2026
Beginner Guide
What Are Event Contracts?
Event contracts are simple, binary contracts that pay a fixed amount if a specified event happens. This guide explains what they are, how they work, and a clear example.
- August 30, 2026
Market Explainer
Weather Prediction Market Contracts
A clear guide to weather prediction market contracts: what they are, how official measurements resolve them, a worked temperature example with real numbers, and who uses them.
- August 30, 2026
Market Explainer
How Automated Market Makers Price Prediction Market Outcomes
Automated market makers (AMMs) use bonding curves or scoring rules to turn trades into continuous prices. Learn the basic rules, a worked example, and the practical trade-offs.
- August 30, 2026
Market Explainer
Prediction Market Contracts: Political Contract Types
Learn the main contract types—binary, categorical, scalar, conditional, and combinatoric—how they pay out, and how to read prices in political markets.
- August 30, 2026
Beginner Guide
What Are Yes/No Contracts?
Yes/No contracts are event contracts that pay $1 if the event happens and $0 if it does not. They make market probabilities easy to see and trade.
- August 30, 2026
Beginner Guide
What Are Prediction Markets?
Prediction markets are markets where people buy contracts that pay out if a future event happens. Prices reflect the crowd’s best estimate of the chance an event will occur.
- August 30, 2026
Beginner Guide
How Do Prediction Markets Work?
Prediction markets let people buy and sell contracts that pay out if an event happens. Prices reflect the market’s collective forecast and update as new information arrives.
- August 29, 2026
Market Explainer
How Market Liquidity Shapes Prediction Market Prices
Market liquidity — how much money and how many orders are available — determines spreads, price volatility, and how much a trade moves a prediction-market price.
- August 29, 2026
Market Explainer
Entertainment Market Contracts: Types Used in Prediction Markets
Learn the common contract types used in entertainment prediction markets — binary, categorical, scalar, and futures-style — and how to read their pages and settlement rules.
- August 29, 2026
Market Explainer
Prediction Market AMM: How Bonding Curves Power Crypto Markets
AMMs use continuous price functions (bonding curves) instead of orderbooks. This guide explains how those curves translate trades into marginal probabilities and what design choices mean for liquidity and manipulation.
- August 28, 2026
Market Explainer
How Oracles Power Crypto Prediction Markets
Oracles bridge blockchains and real-world data. This guide shows why on-chain prediction markets depend on reliable oracles, with a worked example using a Yes contract priced at $0.62.
- August 28, 2026
Beginner Guide
Bid-Ask Spread in Prediction Markets
The bid–ask spread is the gap between the highest price someone will buy and the lowest price someone will sell. It signals liquidity, uncertainty, and the hidden cost of transacting.
- August 28, 2026
Beginner Guide
What Cognitive Biases Affect Entertainment Prediction Markets
Entertainment market biases are common cognitive and social shortcuts—like recency, halo, and herding—that push prediction market prices away from objective signals.
- August 27, 2026
Market Explainer
How Entertainment Market Odds Are Calculated
Learn what a market price means, how trades and market makers set entertainment market odds, and practical caveats such as thin markets and ambiguous resolutions.
- August 27, 2026
Market Explainer
Who Uses Weather Prediction Markets and What Decisions Do They Inform
Weather prediction markets are consulted by agriculture, energy, insurance, logistics and event planners to inform timing, hedging and operational contingency decisions.
- August 27, 2026
Beginner Guide
How to write clear weather market questions
Learn how to write unambiguous weather market questions: specify location, time window, units, measurement method, and fallback sources. Includes templates.
- August 26, 2026
Beginner Guide
How to Read Weather Market Probabilities
Learn how market prices map to probabilities and expected payouts for binary and scalar weather contracts, with clear examples and practical tips.
- August 26, 2026
Beginner Guide
How to Read Market-Implied Indicators
Turn prediction-market prices into probabilities or expected values, read spreads and volume as uncertainty, and avoid common traps like thin liquidity and vague questions.
- August 26, 2026
Market Explainer
How Weather Data Feeds Influence Prediction Market Prices
Weather data feeds supply the observations and short-term forecasts that markets use to update event probabilities. Timing, resolution, and revisions in those feeds explain many price moves.
- August 14, 2026
Beginner Guide
How Prediction Market Payouts Work
Learn what a payout is, how prices map to expected payouts, and a simple worked example showing the math when you buy a Yes contract.