A categorized list of active prediction market platforms

Before you pick a platform

In simple terms: platforms differ by what they let you trade, who holds your money, and how outcomes are decided. The key thing to know up front is whether you need regulated fiat markets (for some financial or US political events), fast crypto settlement, or academic-style forecasting with little or no real-money staking.

Ask three quick questions before you continue: Do you need USD custody or are you comfortable using crypto? Do you want deep liquidity for sports or politics? Do you need exportable data or research-friendly APIs? Your answers will narrow the list fast.

Step-by-step: pick, sign up, and place a Yes buy

1. Pick the right category and platform.

Read the short profiles below and pick one that matches your use case. What you see: homepage, market list, category tags (politics, sports, crypto). What can go wrong: picking a platform that restricts users from your country or requires a KYC process you don't want.

2. Create an account and choose custody.

You will either make an account with email/KYC and hold USD/fiat on the platform, or connect a crypto wallet (MetaMask, WalletConnect). What you see: sign-up form, KYC prompts, or wallet connection modal. What can go wrong: KYC rejection, wallet network mismatch (Ethereum vs Gnosis chain), or accidentally sending the wrong token.

3. Fund the account.

Deposit USD or stablecoins like USDC/DAI depending on the platform. What you see: a deposit page, supported asset list, and estimated confirmation times. What can go wrong: using unsupported tokens, long chain confirmations, or missing small gas fees.

4. Open a market page and buy a Yes contract.

Pick an active market and select a Yes contract — an event contract that pays $1 if the event happens. Choose the quantity and confirm. What you see: price (e.g., 0.62), estimated fee, and order confirmation. What can go wrong: buying at wide spreads, insufficient liquidity, or clicking before checking the market's resolution criteria.

Worked example: If a Yes contract costs $0.62 and pays $1 if the event happens, buying one contract costs $0.62. If the event happens, the contract pays $1, so the gain before fees is $0.38. If it does not happen, the contract expires at $0, and the loss is $0.62.

5. Monitor and wait for resolution.

You will see a position page or trade history. Some platforms let you exit early; others require you to hold to resolution. What you see: your balance, open positions, and timestamps. What can go wrong: incorrectly expecting early exits or misunderstanding how disputes / oracle reporting affect settlement.

What a market resolution looks like

Different platforms resolve events differently. Regulated exchanges use official data sources and automated settlement. Decentralized markets rely on oracles and community reporting. Research platforms may resolve by moderator decision or group consensus.

When a market resolves you will typically see:

• An outcome label (Yes/No or a numeric value).
• Payouts applied to your account automatically.
• A timestamp and link to the source used for resolution.

Disputes: some platforms have a formal dispute window where reporters or token-stakers challenge the outcome. The key thing to know: dispute windows can delay payouts and sometimes require staking tokens or paying fees.

Where people get stuck

• Liquidity surprises: thin markets can show a price but no counterparties at that price.
• Misreading resolution language: a market that asks "Will X receive >50% of votes?" may resolve differently than you expect.
• Custody confusion: sending fiat to a crypto-only address or sending tokens on the wrong chain.
• Fees and gas: decentralized platforms may add high gas costs that erase small gains.
• Legal/geo blocks: some platforms block users from specific countries.

A categorized list of platforms and what they're best for

Politics

• PredictIt — Best for small, U.S.-centric political markets. Contract types: Yes/No per event. Custody: fiat with account limits; note: platform status and availability can change. Typical fees: small trading fees and platform commissions.

• Smarkets — Best for political and sports exchange-style trading. Contract types: betting exchange (match orders). Custody: fiat, online wallet. Typical fees: low commission on net winnings.

• Betfair Exchange — Best for deep sports and some politics markets with professional liquidity. Contract types: exchange bets and markets. Custody: fiat, regulated in many jurisdictions. Typical fees: commission on net wins.

Sports

• Betfair Exchange (again) — deep liquidity for many sports markets.
• Smarkets — lighter-weight exchange with modern UI and APIs.

Crypto-native

• Polymarket — Best for quick, liquid topical markets denominated in stablecoins. Contract types: binary/Yes-No and scalar. Custody: crypto wallet (USDC/ETH). Typical fees: platform fee + liquidity spread; gas costs apply on some chains.

• Augur — Best for fully decentralized markets where community reporting matters. Contract types: binary, categorical, scalar. Custody: crypto wallet; settlement on Ethereum or layer-2. Typical fees: protocol fees, reporter fees, gas.

• Omen (Gnosis) — Best for building custom markets on Gnosis chain with AMM-style liquidity. Custody: crypto wallets; market creation often burns or stakes tokens. Typical fees: platform fees and gas.

• Reality.eth — Oracle-driven markets and reporting tools used by many front-ends. Best if you want markets that rely on on-chain attestations.

• Erasure — Best for prediction and information markets tied to publish-or-pay reputation mechanisms; crypto custody, on-chain settlement.

Research and academic

• Manifold Markets — Best for community forecasting and experiments; simple Yes/No and scalar markets. Custody: mostly site credit and optional fiat tipping depending on configuration. Typical fees: low or community-funded.

• Metaculus — Best for probabilistic forecasting with strong research tooling; less focus on tradeable contracts, more on aggregated forecasts and leaderboards.

• Good Judgment Open — Best for structured forecasting tournaments and calibrated human forecasters; not a continuous exchange but used in research contexts.

Niche and industry markets

• Kalshi — Best for regulated, CFTC-cleared event contracts in the U.S. (finance, economics, weather). Contract types: binary event contracts settled in USD. Custody: USD, regulated exchange. Typical fees: per-contract fees and exchange charges.

Keep reading

• What Are Prediction Markets?
• How Do Prediction Markets Work?
• What Are Yes/No Contracts?