Pricing & Probability
Prices in a prediction market are usually quoted between 0 and 100 cents, and people read them as probabilities. That shorthand is useful, but it hides a lot: spreads, fees, time to resolution and thin trading all pull a price away from a clean forecast. These guides cover how to read a price properly, when a market is well calibrated and when it is not, and how to work out what a position actually pays under each outcome. Useful if you already know what a market is and want to interpret the numbers with more care.
Beginner Guide
How to Read Prediction Market Prices
Learn what a prediction market price represents, how to read it as an implied probability, and what practical things (like spreads and liquidity) change how you should use that number.
September 6, 2026Beginner Guide
What Is Implied Probability?
Implied probability converts a prediction market price into a percentage chance. Learn what it represents, how to calculate it, and a simple buy-to-resolution example.
September 6, 2026Market Explainer
How Automated Market Makers Price Prediction Market Outcomes
Automated market makers (AMMs) use bonding curves or scoring rules to turn trades into continuous prices. Learn the basic rules, a worked example, and the practical trade-offs.
August 30, 2026Market Explainer
How Market Liquidity Shapes Prediction Market Prices
Market liquidity — how much money and how many orders are available — determines spreads, price volatility, and how much a trade moves a prediction-market price.
August 29, 2026Beginner Guide
Bid-Ask Spread in Prediction Markets
The bid–ask spread is the gap between the highest price someone will buy and the lowest price someone will sell. It signals liquidity, uncertainty, and the hidden cost of transacting.
August 28, 2026Beginner Guide
Favorite-Longshot Bias in Prediction Markets
The favorite–longshot bias is a consistent pattern where low-probability outcomes (longshots) are overvalued and high-probability outcomes (favorites) are undervalued in markets.
August 24, 2026Beginner Guide
Compare Prediction Market Prices
Practical steps to compare prediction market prices across apps, account for fees and liquidity, and interpret implied probabilities with a worked numeric example.
August 23, 2026Beginner Guide
Prediction Market Calibration
An accessible guide to what calibration means for prediction markets, how researchers measure it, when market prices are well-calibrated, and common pitfalls.
August 22, 2026