Pricing & Probability
Prices in a prediction market are usually quoted between 0 and 100 cents, and people read them as probabilities. That shorthand is useful, but it hides a lot: spreads, fees, time to resolution and thin trading all pull a price away from a clean forecast. These guides cover how to read a price properly, when a market is well calibrated and when it is not, and how to work out what a position actually pays under each outcome. Useful if you already know what a market is and want to interpret the numbers with more care.
Beginner Guide
Favorite-Longshot Bias in Prediction Markets
The favorite–longshot bias is a consistent pattern where low-probability outcomes (longshots) are overvalued and high-probability outcomes (favorites) are undervalued in markets.
October 18, 2026Beginner Guide
Compare Prediction Market Prices
Practical steps to compare prediction market prices across apps, account for fees and liquidity, and interpret implied probabilities with a worked numeric example.
October 18, 2026Market Explainer
Understanding liquidity in prediction markets: the metrics that matter
A practical guide to the liquidity metrics that shape prices in prediction markets and how AMMs and human orderbooks behave differently.
October 17, 2026Beginner Guide
Prediction Market Calibration
An accessible guide to what calibration means for prediction markets, how researchers measure it, when market prices are well-calibrated, and common pitfalls.
October 11, 2026Beginner Guide
What Liquidity Means in Prediction Markets
Liquidity in prediction markets describes how easily you can buy or sell contracts without large price moves. Learn how to spot liquidity, what poor liquidity feels like, and simple ways to reduce risk.
October 10, 2026Beginner Guide
How to Read Prediction Market Probabilities
Learn how price numbers on prediction markets translate into implied chances, how to convert formats, read conflicting markets, and a quick checklist to judge trust.
September 19, 2026Beginner Guide
How to Read Prediction Market Prices
Learn what a prediction market price represents, how to read it as an implied probability, and what practical things (like spreads and liquidity) change how you should use that number.
September 6, 2026Beginner Guide
What Is Implied Probability?
Implied probability converts a prediction market price into a percentage chance. Learn what it represents, how to calculate it, and a simple buy-to-resolution example.
September 6, 2026Market Explainer
How Automated Market Makers Price Prediction Market Outcomes
Automated market makers (AMMs) use bonding curves or scoring rules to turn trades into continuous prices. Learn the basic rules, a worked example, and the practical trade-offs.
August 30, 2026Market Explainer
How Market Liquidity Shapes Prediction Market Prices
Market liquidity — how much money and how many orders are available — determines spreads, price volatility, and how much a trade moves a prediction-market price.
August 29, 2026Beginner Guide
Bid-Ask Spread in Prediction Markets
The bid–ask spread is the gap between the highest price someone will buy and the lowest price someone will sell. It signals liquidity, uncertainty, and the hidden cost of transacting.
August 28, 2026