Politics
Election and policy markets are the most visible corner of prediction markets, and the most misread. A candidate priced at 63 cents is not a forecast that they will win by a certain margin, and prices can move sharply on news that changes very little. These guides cover how political markets are structured, how they respond to polls, debates, withdrawals and results, and what the prices genuinely tell you.
Market Explainer
Prediction Market Contracts: Political Contract Types
Learn the main contract types—binary, categorical, scalar, conditional, and combinatoric—how they pay out, and how to read prices in political markets.
August 30, 2026Market Explainer
Politics Prediction Market Drop-Outs Explained
When a candidate drops out, markets follow the contract's resolution rules. Learn typical outcomes, a buy-to-resolution example, what to check before trading, and common mistakes.
August 25, 2026Beginner Guide
What Political Market Probabilities Mean
Learn how market prices translate into probability forecasts, what a percentage does and doesn’t mean, and how to use probabilities to compare political scenarios.
August 25, 2026Market Explainer
How Election Prediction Markets Work
Election prediction markets let people buy event contracts tied to election outcomes. This guide explains what prices mean, how markets run, and common pitfalls.
August 19, 2026Category Guide
Politics Prediction Markets
A clear guide to how politics prediction markets work, what their prices mean, and common pitfalls for first-time users.
August 16, 2026